By Pat Powers (Radio Iowa)

The calendar says fall but the thermometer says summer. Forecasters say much of Iowa’s southern half will see near-record high temperatures in the low 90s today through Sunday. State climatologist Justin Glisan says it could be the start of a trend as the El Nino pattern is setting up, which may mean Iowans will be facing a warmer-than-normal winter ahead.

“We are getting a clear signal in the climate prediction outlooks for December, January, February, meteorological winter, which are showing elevated chances of warmer conditions across the upper Midwest, including Iowa,” Glisan says. “This meshes well with previous years in which we’ve seen El Nino in wintertime and into early spring.”

Glisan says it’s still too early to predict how much precipitation may fall in the winter ahead, including rain, freezing rain and snow. “So we’ve had years in which we’ve seen above-average precipitation, we’ve seen years in which we’ve been below-average,” Glisan says, “so as of right now, not a clear signal in terms of precipitation, but definitely we’re looking at the potential for a warmer winter.”

While traditional calendars have winter starting on December 21st this year, the climatological winter Glisan referred to is from December 1st through the end of February.