WASHINGTON (AP) — With the Federal Reserve widely expected Wednesday to reduce its key interest rate by a quarter-point to about 4.1%, economists and Wall Street investors will be looking for signals about next steps: How deeply might the Fed cut in the next few months?

There are typically two different approaches the central bank takes to lowering borrowing costs: Either a measured pace that reflects a modest adjustment to its key rate, or a much more rapid set of cuts as the economy deteriorates in an often-doomed effort to stave off recession.

For now, most economists expect it will take the first approach: What many analysts call a “recalibration” of rates to keep the economy growing and businesses hiring. Under this view, the Fed would reduce rates as many as five times by the middle of next year, bringing its rate closer to a level that neither stimulates or slows the economy.

Wall Street traders expect three reductions this year and then two more by next June, according to futures pricing tracked by CME Fedwatch.

A rate cut Wednesday would be the first in nine months. The Fed, led by Chair Jerome Powell, reduced borrowing costs three times last year. But it then put any further cuts on hold to evaluate the impact of President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs on the economy.

As recently as their last meeting in late July, Powell described the job market as “solid” and kept rates unchanged as officials sought to take more time to see how the economy evolved.

Since then, however, the government has reported a sharp slowdown in hiring, and previous government data has been revised much lower. Employers actually cut back slightly on their payrolls in June, shedding 13,000 jobs, and added just 22,000 in August.

The government also said last week that its estimate of job gains for the year ended in March 2025 would likely be revised down by 911,000, a sharp reduction in total employment. Powell and other Fed officials had previously pointed to a robust job market as a key reason that they could afford to keep rates unchanged. But with businesses pulling back on hiring, the economic case for a rate cut — which can spur more borrowing and spending — is stronger.

The downward revision of nearly a million jobs is a “huge downgrade,” said Talley Leger, chief market strategist at the Wealth Consulting Group. “If that doesn’t light a fire under the Fed just from an economic perspective I don’t know what will.”

Still, inflation remains stubbornly elevated, partly because tariffs have lifted the cost of some goods, such as furniture, appliances and food. Prices rose 2.9% in August from a year earlier, the government said last week, up from 2.7% a month earlier.

Persistent inflation could keep the Fed from cutting too rapidly. The central bank will release its quarterly economic projections after the meeting Wednesday, and many economists forecast they will show that officials expect three total reductions this year and at least two more next year.

Five reductions would bring the Fed’s key rate down to just above 3%. Many economists think that is roughly the rate that would neither stimulate nor slow the economy.

If Fed officials began to worry the economy would slip into recession, they would likely cut rates more quickly. But for now, most economists don’t see rapid cuts as necessary.

“We’re not at a break-glass moment,” said Vincent Reinhart, chief economist at BNY Investments. “This is a recalibration.”

MADRID (AP) — TikTok users in the U.S. may get a reprieve from the threat of a shutdown after the Trump administration announced it has reached a framework deal with China for the ownership of the popular social video platform.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a press conference after the latest round of trade talks between the world’s top two economies concluded in Madrid that U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping would speak Friday to possibly finalize the deal. He said the objective of the deal would be to switch to American ownership.

He did not disclose the terms of the deal, saying that it is between two private parties, but added that “the commercial terms have been agreed upon.”

What

is the deal?

Little is known about the actual deal in the works, including what companies are involved and whether the United States would have a stake in TikTok. Li Chenggang, China’s international trade representative, said the two sides have reached “basic framework consensus” to properly solve TikTok-related issues in a cooperative way, reduce investment barriers and promote related economic and trade cooperation, according to China’s official news agency Xinhua.

Oracle Corp. has been floated as a likely buyer for the platform. Representatives for the company did not immediately respond to a message for comment on Monday.

In Madrid, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said the team was “very focused on TikTok and making sure that it was a deal that is fair for the Chinese,” but also “completely respects U.S. national security concerns.”

Wang Jingtao, deputy director of China’s Central Cyberspace Affairs Commission, told reporters in Madrid there was consensus on authorization of “the use of intellectual property rights such as (TikTok’s) algorithm” — a main sticking point in the deal.

The sides also agreed on entrusting a partner with handling U.S. user data and content security, he said.

Extensions continue

Though he has no clear legal basis to do so, Trump has continued to extend the deadline for TikTok to avoid a ban in the U.S. This gives his administration more time to broker a deal to bring the social media platform under American ownership. The next deadline is on Sept. 17, and Trump has already signaled he would extend it if needed.

It is not clear how many times Trump can keep extending the ban as the government continues to try to negotiate a deal for TikTok, which is owned by China’s ByteDance. While there is no clear legal basis for the extensions, so far, there have been no legal challenges against the administration. Trump has amassed more than 15 million followers on TikTok since he joined last year, and he has credited the trendsetting platform with helping him gain traction among young voters. He said in January that he has a “warm spot for TikTok.”

How do Americans view TikTok?

For now, TikTok continues to function for its 170 million users in the U.S. Tech giants Apple, Google and Oracle were persuaded to continue to offer and support the app, on the promise that Trump’s Justice Department would not use the law to seek potentially steep fines against them.

Americans are even more closely divided on what to do about TikTok than they were two years ago.

A recent Pew Research Center survey found that about one-third of Americans said they supported a TikTok ban, down from 50% in March 2023. Roughly one-third said they would oppose a ban, and a similar percentage said they weren’t sure.

Among those who said they supported banning the social media platform, about 8 in 10 cited concerns over users’ data security being at risk as a major factor in their decision, according to the report.

Why does the U.S. want China to divest?

During his first term as president, Trump led the effort to ban TikTok, saying it posed a threat to U.S. national security. But his tune changed when he returned to the White House a second time, signing an executive order on his first day in office to keep the app running.

During Joe Biden’s Democratic presidency, Congress and the White House used national security grounds to approve a U.S. ban on TikTok unless its Chinese parent company sold its controlling stake.

U.S. officials were concerned about ByteDance’s roots and ownership, pointing to laws in China that require Chinese companies to hand over data requested by the government. Another concern became the proprietary algorithm that populates what users see on the app.

ROME (AP) — Pope Leo XIV marveled at the “huge learning curve” he has taken on as pontiff and likened some aspects of the job to jumping “in on the deep end of the pool very quickly,” in excerpts of an interview released Sunday on his 70th birthday.

The pope also lamented widening income gaps between the working class and CEOs, recalling the recent news that Elon Musk could be in line to become the world’s first trillionaire.

“If that is the only thing that has value anymore, then we’re in big trouble,” Leo said in the comments, the pope’s first interview as history’s first American pope.

The comments came just a day after Musk’s brother’s company, Nova Sky Stories, staged a light show over the Vatican featuring 3,000 drones depicting images from the Sistine Chapel and even Pope Francis’ face.

The interview was conducted this summer by Vatican correspondent Elise Ann Allen for her forthcoming biography of Leo. Excerpts were published Sunday on Allen’s Catholic news site Crux, and in the El Comercio daily of Peru.

In the excerpts, Leo spoke about feeling both American and Peruvian, given his dual citizenship and 20 years of missionary experience in Peru. He said that experience gave him great appreciation of the Latin American church and Pope Francis’ ministry as history’s first South American pope.

Asked whether he would root for the U.S. or Peru in a future World Cup, Leo drew parallels to his childhood in Chicago and the value of not shutting down opponents.

“Even at home, I grew up a White Sox fan, but my mother was a Cubs fan, so you couldn’t be one of those fans that shut out the other side,” he said. “We learned, even in sports, to have an open, dialogical, friendly and not angry competitive stance on things like that, because we might not have gotten dinner had we been!”

Francis promoted Leo to a top job at the Vatican in 2023, making clear he viewed him as a potential successor. Nevertheless Leo said he wasn’t fully prepared for the job.

“There’s still a huge learning curve ahead of me,” he said, adding that he had found his footing as pastor, but that the challenge was the job as world leader.

“On that one I had to jump in on the deep end of the pool very quickly,” he said.

Leo’s 70th birthday is celebrated at the Vatican

The interview was released Sunday as Leo marked his 70th birthday, which was celebrated at the Vatican during his traditional noon blessing.

Leo saw giant “Happy birthday” banners, in English, Italian and Spanish, balloons and congratulatory signs held up by the faithful gathered in St. Peter’s Square. Groups of Peruvian believers, including dancers in traditional attire, were out in force.

“Dear friends, it seems you know today I have turned 70,” Leo said to cheers. “I thank the Lord, my parents and all those who remembered me in their prayers.”

When he was elected last May at age 69, the former Robert Prevost was the youngest pope since 1978, when Karol Wojtyla was elected Pope John Paul II at age 58.

Many people in the square knew it was Leo’s birthday and wished him well, especially given the weight of responsibility he had taken on to run the Catholic Church.

“Well, he definitely needs a lot of support, because he has to carry on a pontificate during a particularly difficult period, both for geopolitical issues and certainly for internal matters,” said Lorenzo Vecchio, a member of a Catholic university group in the piazza. “We are certainly happy that he is a very young pope.”